September 2019 Scottsdale Market Update

Dated: 09/04/2019

Views: 179

Let me just start by going over the fact that our active listings are down actually 13.8% year-over-year, which is great if you're trying to sell your home in Scottsdale Our sold listings are up 0.1% so not a whole lot here year over year from last year.  But the good news is there are still more buyers than there are listing. That is great if you live in the Scottsdale area and are still looking to sell your home… especially with the recent drop in interest rates.  The other thing that is good news for sellers right now is that the median sale price per square foot has gone up 3.9% year-over-year from last year. So that’s great for home values. It's currently sitting at $232.33 cents per square foot.  That's much higher than the rest of The Valley as a whole.  So, Scottsdale is a great place if you're still looking to buy or to sell because you're getting a really great home and with the lower interest rates you have more purchasing power.

For example: on a $400,000.00 home with that quarter of a percent interest rate drop, you now have almost $50,000 more purchasing power than you did before.  So, before when you were looking at $400,000 and looking to keep your payments under $2,000/month, you are now at a $450,0000 home for the same payment. That’s good news for both buyers and for sellers.

Our month supply is down again this month.  It's at 13.9% and we've only got a 2.58 month’s supply of homes versus last year when we had a 3-month supply of inventory here in Scottsdale That means supply is down 13.9% year-over-year from where it was last year.  So that’s more good news for sellers.  Not so much for buyers, especially in the lower price points, because that means there's still more buyers and less inventory.

The last thing I want to cover when we're comparing year-over-year stats is the median days on market.  That is up and that's a trend I'm seeing throughout the North Valley as a whole.  Median days on the market is up by 8.5% and I think that's because buying has slowed down a little bit and prices have leveled up a little bit.  But people are continuing (other agents and sellers) are to push the upper ends of the limits when they list their homes.  That means that the homes are selling for about the same if not a little bit less, but they're continuing to price higher and higher because they haven't really gotten the memo yet: that things have slowed just a tiny bit in the North Valley.

Our median days on market right now is 64 days.  The one thing that I think most sellers should keep in mind in Scottsdale (and here's the bad news) is that right now over 30% of all listings in Scottsdale do not sell.  So it is really important to make sure that your home is in the most sellable condition, that you pick the right Realtor for your market to make sure that the home is being marketed properly and is being put in front of the right buyers to the best of its ability, and that you are not pricing the home above the market as opposed to right in line or maybe even slightly below the comparable homes.  So, keeping in mind with the fact that our month supply month over month has actually gone up a little bit, but year-over-year is still down, just keep in mind that you know we're going have a little shift in the economy and that's okay.  Having a recession does not equal a housing crisis.  It is imperative that both Buyers and Sellers understand the difference. Knowing all of that, it is still a good time to buy and sell and we're still in a perfect little bubble where it benefits both the buyers and the sellers.  

Supply is still low for all of Scottsdale as a general whole.  But it also means that buyers are being a little choosier when they're going out and purchasing their home.  They realize that prices have recovered and so they are still looking for a deal.  You want to make sure that your home is the prettiest one on the block and that it’s priced the best as well.

The other thing that I found really fascinating for the Scottsdale market is the luxury market supply and demand.  I'm talking about homes that are in the high-end to luxury market in Arizona, which is anything above $700,000 to $1,000,000.  The inventory is higher than the demand. There is higher demand for homes in the $500,000 to $700,000 range.  In Scottsdale you still (if you're under that $500,000 mark) have tons of buyers. Which is great, but once you get to that $500,000 to $700,000 mark there's a little less of those buyers and there's slightly more inventory. The real big break is right at the $500,000 mark.

The big news for homes between $1 Million and $3 Million dollars is that the supply is sky-high while demand is low.  This is important because we have a lot of those homes in Scottsdale If you're in that market and niche or at least close to it on either side, that's something you should be paying attention to. You need to be pricing your property aggressively, knowing that there's an oversupply of luxury listings in our market.  Once we get to the $3 Million-dollar mark or higher, there's low supply.  If you're in the $1 to 3 million range right now you're getting squeezed, there's a lot of inventory on the market right now. But if you're at the $3 Million dollar range or higher you really are closer to being in line with supply and demand.  That is great news if you have one of the higher dollar luxury listings.  

As a recap: anything under $500K in Scottsdale right now is not only hard to find but there's lots and lots of buyers who would love to live in Scottsdale if only they could afford it.  If your home is under the $500,000 mark you are sitting pretty, and you can probably bet that you're going to have multiple offers if the home is priced and marketed effectively.  The $500K to $700K range is a little different; you're starting to feel the squeeze but not quite yet.  You might expect one or two offers as opposed to six or seven or 12.  That's still okay if the home is priced appropriately.  Lastly, our luxury market between one and three million dollars is where Sellers are having a tough time.

If you know anybody who has any thoughts of buying or selling in Scottsdale, give me a call at 480-717-9405.  I am always happy to drill down to the statistics for your zip code and for your neighborhood to make sure that your home is NOT one of the 30% of homes that are not going to sell.

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Dusti Martin

As a native Arizonan with expertise in data mining and strategic analysis, Dusti Martin is well versed and has put her skills to use for over 5 yrs helping clients find the best deals in real estate a....

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